In this paper we will try to identify and modeling the phenomenon of dependence of short and long term exchange rate volatility through a well-founded approach on the long memory process. The reform of the interbank market is part of the economic recovery program launched by the authorities in 1988. The reorganization of the money market which served to supplement the liquidity needs of banks after exhaustion of refinancing possibilities "counter rediscount ", has undergone significant changes since its reorganization from 1989 to date, in particular, with new players. This note identifies its organization and prospects, as well as the new methods of intervention by the Bank of Algeria. Besides the interbank market, a market for negotiable debt securities will be set up and will thus form a new money market, in the broad sense., the market for negotiable debt securities presents itself as a hinge between the short and long term capital markets where a range of short and medium term securities are offered to agents with financing capacity, such as treasury bills, cash and certificates of deposit. Our empirical study concerns a sample covering average prices GBP, USD and EUR during the overall period of market functioning Algerian interbank exchange rates (March 2008- March 2018). the results obtained testify the presence of a certain phenomenon of long-term persistence in the volatility of exchange rate. FIGARCH-type processes seem to surround this phenomenon.
Published in | International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences (Volume 8, Issue 4) |
DOI | 10.11648/j.ijefm.20200804.11 |
Page(s) | 128-137 |
Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Volatility, Long Memory, Algerian Interbank Market, Fractional Integration
[1] | Andersen, T. G., T. Bollerslev, F. X Diebold et P. Labys (2001), «The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility», Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol. 96, pp. 42-57. |
[2] | Andrews, D. (1991), «Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Matrix Estimation», Econometrica, Vol. 59, pp. 817-858. |
[3] | Atlan, F., Avouyi-Dovi, S. et Ducos, P. (1992), «Dynamique des Taux de Change: Propriétés Statistiques des Taux de Change», Dans E. Girardin (eds), Finance internationale: l’état. |
[4] | actuel de la théorie, Economica. Baillie, R. T, McMahon, P. (1989), «The Foreign Exchange Market», Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. |
[5] | Baillie, R. T. et Bollerslev, T. (1989), «The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional Variance Tale», Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 7, pp. 297-305. |
[6] | Baillie, R. T., Bollerslev, T et Mikkelsen, H. O. (1996), «Fractionally Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity», Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 73, pp. 3-20. |
[7] | Berndt, E. K, Hall, B. H., Hall, R. E. et Hausman, J. A., (1974), «Estimation Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models», Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 4, pp. 653-665. |
[8] | Bollerslev, T et Mikkelsen, H. O., (1996), «Modeling and Pricing Long Memory in Stock Market Volatility», Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 73, pp. 151-184. |
[9] | Bollerslev, T. (1987), «A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return», Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 69, pp. 542-547. |
[10] | Bollerslev, T., (1986), «Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity», Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 5, pp. 1-50. |
[11] | Bollerslev, T., (1987), «A Conditionally Heteroskedasticity Time Series Models for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return», Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 69, pp. 542-547. |
[12] | Bollerslev, T., (1988), «On the Correlation Structure for the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic Process», Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 9, pp. 121-131. |
[13] | Boothe, G, Kaen, F. R. et Koveos, P. E., (1982), «R/S Analysis of Foreign Exchange Rates UnderTwo International Monetary Regimes», Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 10, pp. 297-319. |
[14] | Boothe, P et Glassman, D. (1987), «The Statistical Distribution of Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence and Economic Implications», Journal of International Economics, Vol. 22, pp. 297-319. |
[15] | Caporin, M., (2003), «Stationarity, Memory and Parameter Estimation of FIGARCH Models», Working paper N°03-09, GRETA, Venise, Italie. |
[16] | Cheung, Y. W., (1993), «Long Memory in Foreign Exchange Rates», Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 11, pp. 93-101. |
[17] | Corbae, D et Ouliaris, S. (1986), «Robust Tests for Unit Roots in the Foreign Exchange Markets», Economic Letters, Vol. 22, pp. 375-380. |
[18] | Cornell, W. B. et Dietrich, J. K (1978), «The Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market Under Floating Exchange Rates», Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 60, pp. 111-120. |
[19] | De Grauwe, P., Dewchter, H, et Embrechts, M. (1993), «Exchange Rate Theory, Chaotic Models of Foreign Exchange Markets», Blackwell, Oxford, U.K and Cambridge, USA. |
[20] | Dickey, D. A. et Fuller, W. A., (1979), «Distribution of the Estimates for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root», Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, pp. 427-482. |
[21] | Ding, Z., Granger, C. W. J. et Engle, R. F., (1993), «A Long Memory Property of Stock Markets Returns and a New Model», Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol. 1, pp. 83-106. |
[22] | Dooley, M. P et Shafer, J. (1983), «Analysis of Short Run Exchange Rate Behavior: Marsh 11973 to November 1981», dans D. Bigman et T. Taya (eds.), Exchange Rate and Trade Instability: Causes, Consequences and Remedies, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger. |
[23] | Engle, R. F. et Bollerslev, T., (1986), «Modeling the Persistence of Conditional Variances», Econometric Review, Vol. 5, pp. 1-50. |
[24] | Engle, R. F., (1982), «Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of U.K Inflation», Econometrica, Vol. 50, pp. 987-1008. |
[25] | Engle, R. F., et Bollerslev, T., (1988), «modeling the Persistence of Conditional Variances», Econometric Review, Vol. 5, pp. 1-50. |
[26] | Fama, E., (1965), «Portfolio Analysis in a Stable Paretian Market», Management Science, pp. 404-419.-Freidman, D et Vandersteel, S. (1982), «Short-run Fluctuations in Foreign Exchange Rates», Journal of International Economics, Vol. 13, pp. 171-186. |
[27] | Garman, M et S. Kohlhagen, (1983), «Foreign Currency Option Values», Journal ofInternational Money and Finance, Vol. 2, pp. 231-238. |
[28] | Geweke, J. et Porter-Hudak, S., (1983), «The Estimation and Application of Long Memory Time Series Models», Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 4, pp. 221-238. |
[29] | Granger, C. W. J., Joyeux, R. (1980), «An Introduction to Long Memory Time Series Models and Fractional Differencing», Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 1, pp. 15-29. |
[30] | Harvey, A. C., Ruiz, E et Shephard, N. (1994), «Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models», Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 61, pp. 247-264. |
[31] | Hosking, J. R. M. et Granger, C. W. J., (1996), «Modeling Volatility Persistence of Speculative Returns: A New Approach», Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 73, pp. 185-215. |
[32] | Hsieh, D. A., (1989), «Modeling Heteroskedasticity in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates», Journal of Finance, Vol. 5, pp. 1839-1877. |
[33] | Hurvich, C. M., Deo, R. S. et Brodsky, J., (1998), «The Mean Squared Error of Geweke andPorter-Hudak’s Estimator of the Memory Parameter of Long Memory Time Series», Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 19, pp. 19-46. |
[34] | Jorion, P. (1995), «Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market», Journal of Finance, Vol. 2, pp. 507-528. |
[35] | Kwiatkowski, D. P., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P. et Shin, Y., (1992), «Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of the Unit Root: How Sure are we that Economic Time Series are Non Stationary?», Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 54, pp. 159- 178. |
[36] | Lecourt, C. (2000), Les variations du Taux de Change au Jour le Jour: Une Approche Econométrique à Partir des Processus à Mémoire Longue, Thèse de Doctorat, Université de Lille, France. |
[37] | Levich, R. (1979), On the Efficiency of Markets for Foreign Exchange, dans R. Dornbush et J. Frankel eds. International Economic Policy, Theory and Evidence, John Hopkins, pp. 246-267. |
[38] | Lo, A. W., (1991), «Long Term Memory in Stock Market Prices», Econometrica, Vol. 59, pp. 1279-313. |
[39] | Maheu, J. M., (2002), «Can GARCH Models Capture the Long Range Dependence in Financial market Volatility?, Working Paper, University of Toronto. Mandelbrot, B. B., (1963)», New Methods. |
[40] | Martens, M., et J. Zein, (2002), «Predicting Financial Volatility: High Frequency Time Series Forecasts vis-à-vis Implied Volatility», Working Paper, Erasmus University. |
[41] | McCurdy, T et Morgan, I. G., (1987), «Test of Martingale Hypothesis for Foreign Currency Futures With Varying Volatility», International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 3, pp. 131-148. |
[42] | McKinnon, J. G. (1991), «Critical Values for Co-integration Tests», Dans Engle et C. W. J. Granger (eds), Long-run Economic Relationships: Reading in Co-integration, Oxford United Press. |
[43] | Meese, R. A. et Rogoff, R. (1983), «Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies: Do they Fit Out of Sample?», Journal of International Economics, Vol. 14, pp. 15-24. |
[44] | Meese, R. A. et Singleton, K. J. (1982), «On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange rates», Journal of Finance, Vol. 37, pp. 1029-1035. |
[45] | Palm, F. C, Vlaar, P. J. G. (1997), «Simple Diagnostics Procedures for Modeling Financial Time Series», Allgemeine Statistisches Archives, Vol. 81, pp. 85-101. |
[46] | Perron, P. (1988), «Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Further Evidence from a New Approach», Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, pp. 297-332. |
[47] | Pong, S., M. B. Shackleton, S. J. Taylor et X. Xu (2002), «Forecasting Sterling Dollar Volatility: A Comparison of Implied Volatilities and ARFIMA Models», Working Paper, Lancaster University. |
[48] | Poole, W. (1967), «Speculative Prices as Random Walks: An Analysis of Ten Time Series of Flexible Series Analysis», Southern Journal of Economics, Vol. 33, pp. 468-478. |
[49] | Poon, S. H., Granger C. (2002), « Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review », Forthcoming. |
[50] | Peumont, P. Y., (1996), «Dynamique Non Linéaire du Franc Suisse, du Mark Allemand et de la Livre Sterling Durant la Période 1984-1993», Cahiers Economiques de Bruxelles, Vol. 151, pp. 299-324. |
[51] | Sowel, F., (1992), «Modeling Long-run Behavior with the Fractional ARIMA Models», Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 29, pp. 277-302. |
[52] | Taylor, S. (1986), «Modeling Financial Time Series», Wiley Chichester. |
[53] | Tse, Y. K, (1998), «The Conditional Heteroskedasticity of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rates», Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 13, pp. 49-56. |
[54] | Vilasuso, J. (2002), «Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility», Economic Letters, Vol. 76, pp. 59-64. |
[55] | Westerfield, J. M., (1977), «An Examination of Foreign Exchange Risk under Fixed and Floating Regimes», Journal of International Economics, Vol. 7, pp. 181-200. |
[56] | Whaley, R. E., (1982), «Valuation of American Call Options on Dividend-paying Stocks», Journal of International Economics, Vol. 10, pp. 29-58. |
[57] | Zumbach, G., (2002), «Volatility Processes and Volatility Forecast with Long Memory», Working Paper, Olsen Associates. |
APA Style
Djaballah Mustapha. (2020). Volatility and Long Memory Modeling of Exchange Rate Case of Algerian Interbank Market. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 8(4), 128-137. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20200804.11
ACS Style
Djaballah Mustapha. Volatility and Long Memory Modeling of Exchange Rate Case of Algerian Interbank Market. Int. J. Econ. Finance Manag. Sci. 2020, 8(4), 128-137. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20200804.11
AMA Style
Djaballah Mustapha. Volatility and Long Memory Modeling of Exchange Rate Case of Algerian Interbank Market. Int J Econ Finance Manag Sci. 2020;8(4):128-137. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20200804.11
@article{10.11648/j.ijefm.20200804.11, author = {Djaballah Mustapha}, title = {Volatility and Long Memory Modeling of Exchange Rate Case of Algerian Interbank Market}, journal = {International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {128-137}, doi = {10.11648/j.ijefm.20200804.11}, url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20200804.11}, eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijefm.20200804.11}, abstract = {In this paper we will try to identify and modeling the phenomenon of dependence of short and long term exchange rate volatility through a well-founded approach on the long memory process. The reform of the interbank market is part of the economic recovery program launched by the authorities in 1988. The reorganization of the money market which served to supplement the liquidity needs of banks after exhaustion of refinancing possibilities "counter rediscount ", has undergone significant changes since its reorganization from 1989 to date, in particular, with new players. This note identifies its organization and prospects, as well as the new methods of intervention by the Bank of Algeria. Besides the interbank market, a market for negotiable debt securities will be set up and will thus form a new money market, in the broad sense., the market for negotiable debt securities presents itself as a hinge between the short and long term capital markets where a range of short and medium term securities are offered to agents with financing capacity, such as treasury bills, cash and certificates of deposit. Our empirical study concerns a sample covering average prices GBP, USD and EUR during the overall period of market functioning Algerian interbank exchange rates (March 2008- March 2018). the results obtained testify the presence of a certain phenomenon of long-term persistence in the volatility of exchange rate. FIGARCH-type processes seem to surround this phenomenon.}, year = {2020} }
TY - JOUR T1 - Volatility and Long Memory Modeling of Exchange Rate Case of Algerian Interbank Market AU - Djaballah Mustapha Y1 - 2020/07/13 PY - 2020 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20200804.11 DO - 10.11648/j.ijefm.20200804.11 T2 - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences JF - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences JO - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences SP - 128 EP - 137 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2326-9561 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20200804.11 AB - In this paper we will try to identify and modeling the phenomenon of dependence of short and long term exchange rate volatility through a well-founded approach on the long memory process. The reform of the interbank market is part of the economic recovery program launched by the authorities in 1988. The reorganization of the money market which served to supplement the liquidity needs of banks after exhaustion of refinancing possibilities "counter rediscount ", has undergone significant changes since its reorganization from 1989 to date, in particular, with new players. This note identifies its organization and prospects, as well as the new methods of intervention by the Bank of Algeria. Besides the interbank market, a market for negotiable debt securities will be set up and will thus form a new money market, in the broad sense., the market for negotiable debt securities presents itself as a hinge between the short and long term capital markets where a range of short and medium term securities are offered to agents with financing capacity, such as treasury bills, cash and certificates of deposit. Our empirical study concerns a sample covering average prices GBP, USD and EUR during the overall period of market functioning Algerian interbank exchange rates (March 2008- March 2018). the results obtained testify the presence of a certain phenomenon of long-term persistence in the volatility of exchange rate. FIGARCH-type processes seem to surround this phenomenon. VL - 8 IS - 4 ER -