Public Health Burden and Statistical Determinants of Maternal and Child Mortality in Blue Nile State, Sudan: 
A Secondary Data Analysis, 2010-2023

Alshaikh Ahmed Shokeralla; Mohammed Ali Alshaib; Waleid Alnour Daif

doi:doi:10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11

Research Article |

| Peer-Reviewed

Public Health Burden and Statistical Determinants of Maternal and Child Mortality in Blue Nile State, Sudan: A Secondary Data Analysis, 2010-2023

Alshaikh Ahmed Shokeralla^*

, Mohammed Ali Alshaib, Waleid Alnour Daif

Published in Medicine and Life Sciences (Volume 2, Issue 3)

Received: 20 June 2026 Accepted: 1 July 2026 Published: 27 July 2026

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Abstract

Background: Blue Nile State is one of the most health-fragile regions in Sudan, characterised by recurrent conflict, population displacement, poverty, weak health infrastructure, and a high burden of preventable communicable diseases. Despite its public health importance, state-level statistical evidence on disease burden and determinants of maternal and child health outcomes remains limited. Objective: This study aimed to describe the public health burden in Blue Nile State during 2010-2023 and to identify key statistical determinants associated with maternal and child mortality using available secondary data. Methods: A secondary data analysis was conducted using publicly available reports and published studies from WHO, UNICEF, OCHA, the Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics, the Federal and State Ministries of Health, and peer-reviewed literature. Descriptive statistics, comparative analysis against national averages and SDG targets, chi-square tests, t-tests, time-trend analysis, and multiple linear regression were applied. Regression assumptions were evaluated using residual diagnostics, variance inflation factors (VIF), Durbin-Watson statistics, and influence diagnostics. Results: Blue Nile State showed substantially poorer health indicators than national averages. The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was estimated at 412 per 100,000 live births compared with 295 nationally, while the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) reached 89.3 per 1,000 live births compared with 56.0 nationally. Malaria represented the dominant communicable disease burden (68 cases per 1,000 population). The multiple linear regression model identified poverty rate, distance to health facility, maternal education, vaccination coverage, and malaria prevalence as statistically significant determinants (R² = 0.784; F = 68.32; p < 0.001). Conclusion: Poor health outcomes in Blue Nile State are associated with structural deprivation, geographic barriers, infectious disease burden, limited vaccination coverage, and conflict-related disruption of health services. A comprehensive multi-sector strategy is urgently needed.

Published in	Medicine and Life Sciences (Volume 2, Issue 3)
DOI	10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11
Page(s)	59-73
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2026. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Blue Nile State, Sudan, Public Health, Maternal Mortality, Child Mortality, Malaria, Health Systems, Secondary Data Analysis, Regression Modelling

References

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APA Style

Shokeralla, A. A., Alshaib, M. A., Daif, W. A. (2026). Public Health Burden and Statistical Determinants of Maternal and Child Mortality in Blue Nile State, Sudan: A Secondary Data Analysis, 2010-2023. Medicine and Life Sciences, 2(3), 59-73. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11

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ACS Style

Shokeralla, A. A.; Alshaib, M. A.; Daif, W. A. Public Health Burden and Statistical Determinants of Maternal and Child Mortality in Blue Nile State, Sudan: A Secondary Data Analysis, 2010-2023. Med. Life Sci. 2026, 2(3), 59-73. doi: 10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11

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AMA Style

Shokeralla AA, Alshaib MA, Daif WA. Public Health Burden and Statistical Determinants of Maternal and Child Mortality in Blue Nile State, Sudan: A Secondary Data Analysis, 2010-2023. Med Life Sci. 2026;2(3):59-73. doi: 10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11

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@article{10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11,
  author = {Alshaikh Ahmed Shokeralla and Mohammed Ali Alshaib and Waleid Alnour Daif},
  title = {Public Health Burden and Statistical Determinants of Maternal and Child Mortality in Blue Nile State, Sudan: 
A Secondary Data Analysis, 2010-2023},
  journal = {Medicine and Life Sciences},
  volume = {2},
  number = {3},
  pages = {59-73},
  doi = {10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.mls.20260203.11},
  abstract = {Background: Blue Nile State is one of the most health-fragile regions in Sudan, characterised by recurrent conflict, population displacement, poverty, weak health infrastructure, and a high burden of preventable communicable diseases. Despite its public health importance, state-level statistical evidence on disease burden and determinants of maternal and child health outcomes remains limited. Objective: This study aimed to describe the public health burden in Blue Nile State during 2010-2023 and to identify key statistical determinants associated with maternal and child mortality using available secondary data. Methods: A secondary data analysis was conducted using publicly available reports and published studies from WHO, UNICEF, OCHA, the Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics, the Federal and State Ministries of Health, and peer-reviewed literature. Descriptive statistics, comparative analysis against national averages and SDG targets, chi-square tests, t-tests, time-trend analysis, and multiple linear regression were applied. Regression assumptions were evaluated using residual diagnostics, variance inflation factors (VIF), Durbin-Watson statistics, and influence diagnostics. Results: Blue Nile State showed substantially poorer health indicators than national averages. The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was estimated at 412 per 100,000 live births compared with 295 nationally, while the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) reached 89.3 per 1,000 live births compared with 56.0 nationally. Malaria represented the dominant communicable disease burden (68 cases per 1,000 population). The multiple linear regression model identified poverty rate, distance to health facility, maternal education, vaccination coverage, and malaria prevalence as statistically significant determinants (R2 = 0.784; F = 68.32; p < 0.001). Conclusion: Poor health outcomes in Blue Nile State are associated with structural deprivation, geographic barriers, infectious disease burden, limited vaccination coverage, and conflict-related disruption of health services. A comprehensive multi-sector strategy is urgently needed.},
 year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Public Health Burden and Statistical Determinants of Maternal and Child Mortality in Blue Nile State, Sudan: 
A Secondary Data Analysis, 2010-2023
AU  - Alshaikh Ahmed Shokeralla
AU  - Mohammed Ali Alshaib
AU  - Waleid Alnour Daif
Y1  - 2026/07/27
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11
T2  - Medicine and Life Sciences
JF  - Medicine and Life Sciences
JO  - Medicine and Life Sciences
SP  - 59
EP  - 73
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 3071-0618
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11
AB  - Background: Blue Nile State is one of the most health-fragile regions in Sudan, characterised by recurrent conflict, population displacement, poverty, weak health infrastructure, and a high burden of preventable communicable diseases. Despite its public health importance, state-level statistical evidence on disease burden and determinants of maternal and child health outcomes remains limited. Objective: This study aimed to describe the public health burden in Blue Nile State during 2010-2023 and to identify key statistical determinants associated with maternal and child mortality using available secondary data. Methods: A secondary data analysis was conducted using publicly available reports and published studies from WHO, UNICEF, OCHA, the Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics, the Federal and State Ministries of Health, and peer-reviewed literature. Descriptive statistics, comparative analysis against national averages and SDG targets, chi-square tests, t-tests, time-trend analysis, and multiple linear regression were applied. Regression assumptions were evaluated using residual diagnostics, variance inflation factors (VIF), Durbin-Watson statistics, and influence diagnostics. Results: Blue Nile State showed substantially poorer health indicators than national averages. The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was estimated at 412 per 100,000 live births compared with 295 nationally, while the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) reached 89.3 per 1,000 live births compared with 56.0 nationally. Malaria represented the dominant communicable disease burden (68 cases per 1,000 population). The multiple linear regression model identified poverty rate, distance to health facility, maternal education, vaccination coverage, and malaria prevalence as statistically significant determinants (R2 = 0.784; F = 68.32; p < 0.001). Conclusion: Poor health outcomes in Blue Nile State are associated with structural deprivation, geographic barriers, infectious disease burden, limited vaccination coverage, and conflict-related disruption of health services. A comprehensive multi-sector strategy is urgently needed.
VL  - 2
IS  - 3
ER  -

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Author Information

Alshaikh Ahmed Shokeralla

Department of Basic Sciences, University of Health Sciences, Damazin, Sudan

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http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1518-475X
Mohammed Ali Alshaib

Department of Histopathology and Cytology, University of Health Sciences, Damazin, Sudan

Contact Email
Waleid Alnour Daif

Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Blue Nile University, Damazin, Sudan

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APA Style

Shokeralla, A. A., Alshaib, M. A., Daif, W. A. (2026). Public Health Burden and Statistical Determinants of Maternal and Child Mortality in Blue Nile State, Sudan: A Secondary Data Analysis, 2010-2023. Medicine and Life Sciences, 2(3), 59-73. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11

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ACS Style

Shokeralla, A. A.; Alshaib, M. A.; Daif, W. A. Public Health Burden and Statistical Determinants of Maternal and Child Mortality in Blue Nile State, Sudan: A Secondary Data Analysis, 2010-2023. Med. Life Sci. 2026, 2(3), 59-73. doi: 10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11

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AMA Style

Shokeralla AA, Alshaib MA, Daif WA. Public Health Burden and Statistical Determinants of Maternal and Child Mortality in Blue Nile State, Sudan: A Secondary Data Analysis, 2010-2023. Med Life Sci. 2026;2(3):59-73. doi: 10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11,
  author = {Alshaikh Ahmed Shokeralla and Mohammed Ali Alshaib and Waleid Alnour Daif},
  title = {Public Health Burden and Statistical Determinants of Maternal and Child Mortality in Blue Nile State, Sudan: 
A Secondary Data Analysis, 2010-2023},
  journal = {Medicine and Life Sciences},
  volume = {2},
  number = {3},
  pages = {59-73},
  doi = {10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.mls.20260203.11},
  abstract = {Background: Blue Nile State is one of the most health-fragile regions in Sudan, characterised by recurrent conflict, population displacement, poverty, weak health infrastructure, and a high burden of preventable communicable diseases. Despite its public health importance, state-level statistical evidence on disease burden and determinants of maternal and child health outcomes remains limited. Objective: This study aimed to describe the public health burden in Blue Nile State during 2010-2023 and to identify key statistical determinants associated with maternal and child mortality using available secondary data. Methods: A secondary data analysis was conducted using publicly available reports and published studies from WHO, UNICEF, OCHA, the Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics, the Federal and State Ministries of Health, and peer-reviewed literature. Descriptive statistics, comparative analysis against national averages and SDG targets, chi-square tests, t-tests, time-trend analysis, and multiple linear regression were applied. Regression assumptions were evaluated using residual diagnostics, variance inflation factors (VIF), Durbin-Watson statistics, and influence diagnostics. Results: Blue Nile State showed substantially poorer health indicators than national averages. The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was estimated at 412 per 100,000 live births compared with 295 nationally, while the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) reached 89.3 per 1,000 live births compared with 56.0 nationally. Malaria represented the dominant communicable disease burden (68 cases per 1,000 population). The multiple linear regression model identified poverty rate, distance to health facility, maternal education, vaccination coverage, and malaria prevalence as statistically significant determinants (R2 = 0.784; F = 68.32; p < 0.001). Conclusion: Poor health outcomes in Blue Nile State are associated with structural deprivation, geographic barriers, infectious disease burden, limited vaccination coverage, and conflict-related disruption of health services. A comprehensive multi-sector strategy is urgently needed.},
 year = {2026}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Public Health Burden and Statistical Determinants of Maternal and Child Mortality in Blue Nile State, Sudan: 
A Secondary Data Analysis, 2010-2023
AU  - Alshaikh Ahmed Shokeralla
AU  - Mohammed Ali Alshaib
AU  - Waleid Alnour Daif
Y1  - 2026/07/27
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11
T2  - Medicine and Life Sciences
JF  - Medicine and Life Sciences
JO  - Medicine and Life Sciences
SP  - 59
EP  - 73
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 3071-0618
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mls.20260203.11
AB  - Background: Blue Nile State is one of the most health-fragile regions in Sudan, characterised by recurrent conflict, population displacement, poverty, weak health infrastructure, and a high burden of preventable communicable diseases. Despite its public health importance, state-level statistical evidence on disease burden and determinants of maternal and child health outcomes remains limited. Objective: This study aimed to describe the public health burden in Blue Nile State during 2010-2023 and to identify key statistical determinants associated with maternal and child mortality using available secondary data. Methods: A secondary data analysis was conducted using publicly available reports and published studies from WHO, UNICEF, OCHA, the Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics, the Federal and State Ministries of Health, and peer-reviewed literature. Descriptive statistics, comparative analysis against national averages and SDG targets, chi-square tests, t-tests, time-trend analysis, and multiple linear regression were applied. Regression assumptions were evaluated using residual diagnostics, variance inflation factors (VIF), Durbin-Watson statistics, and influence diagnostics. Results: Blue Nile State showed substantially poorer health indicators than national averages. The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was estimated at 412 per 100,000 live births compared with 295 nationally, while the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) reached 89.3 per 1,000 live births compared with 56.0 nationally. Malaria represented the dominant communicable disease burden (68 cases per 1,000 population). The multiple linear regression model identified poverty rate, distance to health facility, maternal education, vaccination coverage, and malaria prevalence as statistically significant determinants (R2 = 0.784; F = 68.32; p < 0.001). Conclusion: Poor health outcomes in Blue Nile State are associated with structural deprivation, geographic barriers, infectious disease burden, limited vaccination coverage, and conflict-related disruption of health services. A comprehensive multi-sector strategy is urgently needed.
VL  - 2
IS  - 3
ER  -

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