Statistical Analysis of Displacement in Blue Nile State: 
A Secondary-Data Analytical Study of Displacement and Humanitarian Indicators

Alshaikh Ahmed Shokeralla; Mohammed Alshaib; Waleid Alnour Daif

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11

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Statistical Analysis of Displacement in Blue Nile State: A Secondary-Data Analytical Study of Displacement and Humanitarian Indicators

Alshaikh Ahmed Shokeralla^*

, Mohammed Alshaib, Waleid Alnour Daif

Published in International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications (Volume 12, Issue 2)

Received: 20 June 2026 Accepted: 13 July 2026 Published: 28 July 2026

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Abstract

Background: Internal displacement in Sudan has escalated dramatically following the April 2023 conflict onset, creating severe humanitarian needs in peripheral states such as Blue Nile State. Objectives: To provide a statistically coherent description of displacement dynamics and humanitarian indicators in Blue Nile State using publicly available secondary data. Methods: A descriptive analytical design was applied using aggregate secondary data from IOM DTM, UNICEF and OCHA. Key statistical procedures included percentage change calculations, annualised growth rate estimation, average flow rate computation, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for locality concentration, and cross-indicator comparison with national benchmarks. All equations are numbered and presented explicitly. Results: The IDP stock increased from 81,640 (April 2023) to 361,000 (March 2025), representing a 342.2% cumulative increase and an annualised growth rate of 117.2%. New displacement flows in early 2026 showed acceleration: the average daily rate increased from 341.7 to 430.5 individuals/day (rate ratio = 1.26). Displacement was geographically concentrated in three localities (HHI = 0.382). Humanitarian indicators reveal critical gaps, with 40% stunting, 57.7% school exclusion, and 57% lacking basic sanitation. Conclusions: Blue Nile State faces a severe and accelerating displacement crisis accompanied by multisectoral humanitarian deficits. The study highlights the need for harmonised monthly locality-level monitoring and multisectoral response prioritisation.

Published in	International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications (Volume 12, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11
Page(s)	24-35
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2026. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Internal Displacement, IDPs, Blue Nile State, Sudan, Humanitarian Indicators, Secondary Data, Displacement Tracking, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index

References

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APA Style

Shokeralla, A. A., Alshaib, M., Daif, W. A. (2026). Statistical Analysis of Displacement in Blue Nile State: A Secondary-Data Analytical Study of Displacement and Humanitarian Indicators. International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, 12(2), 24-35. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11

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ACS Style

Shokeralla, A. A.; Alshaib, M.; Daif, W. A. Statistical Analysis of Displacement in Blue Nile State: A Secondary-Data Analytical Study of Displacement and Humanitarian Indicators. Int. J. Stat. Distrib. Appl. 2026, 12(2), 24-35. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11

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AMA Style

Shokeralla AA, Alshaib M, Daif WA. Statistical Analysis of Displacement in Blue Nile State: A Secondary-Data Analytical Study of Displacement and Humanitarian Indicators. Int J Stat Distrib Appl. 2026;12(2):24-35. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11,
  author = {Alshaikh Ahmed Shokeralla and Mohammed Alshaib and Waleid Alnour Daif},
  title = {Statistical Analysis of Displacement in Blue Nile State: 
A Secondary-Data Analytical Study of Displacement and Humanitarian Indicators},
  journal = {International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications},
  volume = {12},
  number = {2},
  pages = {24-35},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijsda.20261202.11},
  abstract = {Background: Internal displacement in Sudan has escalated dramatically following the April 2023 conflict onset, creating severe humanitarian needs in peripheral states such as Blue Nile State. Objectives: To provide a statistically coherent description of displacement dynamics and humanitarian indicators in Blue Nile State using publicly available secondary data. Methods: A descriptive analytical design was applied using aggregate secondary data from IOM DTM, UNICEF and OCHA. Key statistical procedures included percentage change calculations, annualised growth rate estimation, average flow rate computation, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for locality concentration, and cross-indicator comparison with national benchmarks. All equations are numbered and presented explicitly. Results: The IDP stock increased from 81,640 (April 2023) to 361,000 (March 2025), representing a 342.2% cumulative increase and an annualised growth rate of 117.2%. New displacement flows in early 2026 showed acceleration: the average daily rate increased from 341.7 to 430.5 individuals/day (rate ratio = 1.26). Displacement was geographically concentrated in three localities (HHI = 0.382). Humanitarian indicators reveal critical gaps, with 40% stunting, 57.7% school exclusion, and 57% lacking basic sanitation. Conclusions: Blue Nile State faces a severe and accelerating displacement crisis accompanied by multisectoral humanitarian deficits. The study highlights the need for harmonised monthly locality-level monitoring and multisectoral response prioritisation.},
 year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Statistical Analysis of Displacement in Blue Nile State: 
A Secondary-Data Analytical Study of Displacement and Humanitarian Indicators
AU  - Alshaikh Ahmed Shokeralla
AU  - Mohammed Alshaib
AU  - Waleid Alnour Daif
Y1  - 2026/07/28
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11
T2  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JF  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JO  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
SP  - 24
EP  - 35
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2472-3509
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11
AB  - Background: Internal displacement in Sudan has escalated dramatically following the April 2023 conflict onset, creating severe humanitarian needs in peripheral states such as Blue Nile State. Objectives: To provide a statistically coherent description of displacement dynamics and humanitarian indicators in Blue Nile State using publicly available secondary data. Methods: A descriptive analytical design was applied using aggregate secondary data from IOM DTM, UNICEF and OCHA. Key statistical procedures included percentage change calculations, annualised growth rate estimation, average flow rate computation, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for locality concentration, and cross-indicator comparison with national benchmarks. All equations are numbered and presented explicitly. Results: The IDP stock increased from 81,640 (April 2023) to 361,000 (March 2025), representing a 342.2% cumulative increase and an annualised growth rate of 117.2%. New displacement flows in early 2026 showed acceleration: the average daily rate increased from 341.7 to 430.5 individuals/day (rate ratio = 1.26). Displacement was geographically concentrated in three localities (HHI = 0.382). Humanitarian indicators reveal critical gaps, with 40% stunting, 57.7% school exclusion, and 57% lacking basic sanitation. Conclusions: Blue Nile State faces a severe and accelerating displacement crisis accompanied by multisectoral humanitarian deficits. The study highlights the need for harmonised monthly locality-level monitoring and multisectoral response prioritisation.
VL  - 12
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Alshaikh Ahmed Shokeralla

Department of Statistics, University of Health Sciences, Damazin, Sudan

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http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1518-475X
Mohammed Alshaib

Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, University of Health Sciences, Damazin, Sudan

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Waleid Alnour Daif

Department of Medicine and Health Sciences, Blue Nile University, Damazin, Sudan

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APA Style

Shokeralla, A. A., Alshaib, M., Daif, W. A. (2026). Statistical Analysis of Displacement in Blue Nile State: A Secondary-Data Analytical Study of Displacement and Humanitarian Indicators. International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, 12(2), 24-35. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11

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ACS Style

Shokeralla, A. A.; Alshaib, M.; Daif, W. A. Statistical Analysis of Displacement in Blue Nile State: A Secondary-Data Analytical Study of Displacement and Humanitarian Indicators. Int. J. Stat. Distrib. Appl. 2026, 12(2), 24-35. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11

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AMA Style

Shokeralla AA, Alshaib M, Daif WA. Statistical Analysis of Displacement in Blue Nile State: A Secondary-Data Analytical Study of Displacement and Humanitarian Indicators. Int J Stat Distrib Appl. 2026;12(2):24-35. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11,
  author = {Alshaikh Ahmed Shokeralla and Mohammed Alshaib and Waleid Alnour Daif},
  title = {Statistical Analysis of Displacement in Blue Nile State: 
A Secondary-Data Analytical Study of Displacement and Humanitarian Indicators},
  journal = {International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications},
  volume = {12},
  number = {2},
  pages = {24-35},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijsda.20261202.11},
  abstract = {Background: Internal displacement in Sudan has escalated dramatically following the April 2023 conflict onset, creating severe humanitarian needs in peripheral states such as Blue Nile State. Objectives: To provide a statistically coherent description of displacement dynamics and humanitarian indicators in Blue Nile State using publicly available secondary data. Methods: A descriptive analytical design was applied using aggregate secondary data from IOM DTM, UNICEF and OCHA. Key statistical procedures included percentage change calculations, annualised growth rate estimation, average flow rate computation, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for locality concentration, and cross-indicator comparison with national benchmarks. All equations are numbered and presented explicitly. Results: The IDP stock increased from 81,640 (April 2023) to 361,000 (March 2025), representing a 342.2% cumulative increase and an annualised growth rate of 117.2%. New displacement flows in early 2026 showed acceleration: the average daily rate increased from 341.7 to 430.5 individuals/day (rate ratio = 1.26). Displacement was geographically concentrated in three localities (HHI = 0.382). Humanitarian indicators reveal critical gaps, with 40% stunting, 57.7% school exclusion, and 57% lacking basic sanitation. Conclusions: Blue Nile State faces a severe and accelerating displacement crisis accompanied by multisectoral humanitarian deficits. The study highlights the need for harmonised monthly locality-level monitoring and multisectoral response prioritisation.},
 year = {2026}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Statistical Analysis of Displacement in Blue Nile State: 
A Secondary-Data Analytical Study of Displacement and Humanitarian Indicators
AU  - Alshaikh Ahmed Shokeralla
AU  - Mohammed Alshaib
AU  - Waleid Alnour Daif
Y1  - 2026/07/28
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11
T2  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JF  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JO  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
SP  - 24
EP  - 35
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2472-3509
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11
AB  - Background: Internal displacement in Sudan has escalated dramatically following the April 2023 conflict onset, creating severe humanitarian needs in peripheral states such as Blue Nile State. Objectives: To provide a statistically coherent description of displacement dynamics and humanitarian indicators in Blue Nile State using publicly available secondary data. Methods: A descriptive analytical design was applied using aggregate secondary data from IOM DTM, UNICEF and OCHA. Key statistical procedures included percentage change calculations, annualised growth rate estimation, average flow rate computation, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for locality concentration, and cross-indicator comparison with national benchmarks. All equations are numbered and presented explicitly. Results: The IDP stock increased from 81,640 (April 2023) to 361,000 (March 2025), representing a 342.2% cumulative increase and an annualised growth rate of 117.2%. New displacement flows in early 2026 showed acceleration: the average daily rate increased from 341.7 to 430.5 individuals/day (rate ratio = 1.26). Displacement was geographically concentrated in three localities (HHI = 0.382). Humanitarian indicators reveal critical gaps, with 40% stunting, 57.7% school exclusion, and 57% lacking basic sanitation. Conclusions: Blue Nile State faces a severe and accelerating displacement crisis accompanied by multisectoral humanitarian deficits. The study highlights the need for harmonised monthly locality-level monitoring and multisectoral response prioritisation.
VL  - 12
IS  - 2
ER  -

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