Research Article
Statistical Analysis of Displacement in Blue Nile State:
A Secondary-Data Analytical Study of Displacement and Humanitarian Indicators
Alshaikh Ahmed Shokeralla*
,
Mohammed Alshaib,
Waleid Alnour Daif
Issue:
Volume 12, Issue 2, June 2026
Pages:
24-35
Received:
20 June 2026
Accepted:
13 July 2026
Published:
28 July 2026
DOI:
10.11648/j.ijsda.20261202.11
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Abstract: Background: Internal displacement in Sudan has escalated dramatically following the April 2023 conflict onset, creating severe humanitarian needs in peripheral states such as Blue Nile State. Objectives: To provide a statistically coherent description of displacement dynamics and humanitarian indicators in Blue Nile State using publicly available secondary data. Methods: A descriptive analytical design was applied using aggregate secondary data from IOM DTM, UNICEF and OCHA. Key statistical procedures included percentage change calculations, annualised growth rate estimation, average flow rate computation, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for locality concentration, and cross-indicator comparison with national benchmarks. All equations are numbered and presented explicitly. Results: The IDP stock increased from 81,640 (April 2023) to 361,000 (March 2025), representing a 342.2% cumulative increase and an annualised growth rate of 117.2%. New displacement flows in early 2026 showed acceleration: the average daily rate increased from 341.7 to 430.5 individuals/day (rate ratio = 1.26). Displacement was geographically concentrated in three localities (HHI = 0.382). Humanitarian indicators reveal critical gaps, with 40% stunting, 57.7% school exclusion, and 57% lacking basic sanitation. Conclusions: Blue Nile State faces a severe and accelerating displacement crisis accompanied by multisectoral humanitarian deficits. The study highlights the need for harmonised monthly locality-level monitoring and multisectoral response prioritisation.
Abstract: Background: Internal displacement in Sudan has escalated dramatically following the April 2023 conflict onset, creating severe humanitarian needs in peripheral states such as Blue Nile State. Objectives: To provide a statistically coherent description of displacement dynamics and humanitarian indicators in Blue Nile State using publicly available s...
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