Linear Regression, Fundamental Issue in Training and Application of Engineering
Luz Elva Marín Vaca,
Martha Lilia Domínguez Patiño,
Nadia Lara Ruiz,
Miguel Aguilar Cortes
Issue:
Volume 3, Issue 1, February 2015
Pages:
1-5
Received:
9 December 2014
Accepted:
19 December 2014
Published:
20 January 2015
Abstract: In this paper the impact on student learning in teaching linear regression and correlation analyzes, making use of new information technologies (ICT) to support Project Descartes through tasks; that allow students to research results type of scatterplot equation of the line, analysis determining prognostic variables. To conduct this research took into account two groups 28 and one of 26 students, one of them use technology and other not; the two groups were taught a class mayéutica, performing exercises topic. Both groups developed the same tasks, the group with computer; for the analysis of results, we started from a classified to determine the answers, because the practice is based on tasks with graphical and application of equations. Thus evaluation codes that were used were as follows: 1. If you have any idea = Excellent, 2. has no idea = Good 3. He did not understand anything = Poor; reaching an average rate of 70.39%, of if you have no idea, 25.76% of those who have no idea 3.43%.
Abstract: In this paper the impact on student learning in teaching linear regression and correlation analyzes, making use of new information technologies (ICT) to support Project Descartes through tasks; that allow students to research results type of scatterplot equation of the line, analysis determining prognostic variables. To conduct this research took i...
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A Power Law Extrapolation – Interpolation Method for IBNR Claims Reserving
Issue:
Volume 3, Issue 1, February 2015
Pages:
6-13
Received:
13 January 2015
Accepted:
22 January 2015
Published:
2 February 2015
Abstract: To calculate claims reserves more frequently than the usual yearly periods for which ultimate loss development factors are available, it is necessary to perform an extrapolation prior to the time marking the end of the first development year and an interpolation for each successive development year. A simple power law extrapolation – interpolation method is developed and illustrated for monthly and quarterly sub-periods.
Abstract: To calculate claims reserves more frequently than the usual yearly periods for which ultimate loss development factors are available, it is necessary to perform an extrapolation prior to the time marking the end of the first development year and an interpolation for each successive development year. A simple power law extrapolation – interpolation ...
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Estimating Default Correlations Using Simulated Asset Values
Osei Antwi,
Dadzie Joseph,
Louis Appiah Gyekye
Issue:
Volume 3, Issue 1, February 2015
Pages:
14-21
Received:
7 January 2015
Accepted:
21 January 2015
Published:
2 February 2015
Abstract: We outline the ingredients necessary to compute the Joint Default Probability from which we obtain Default Correlation, an important risk quantity in the determination of Internal Rating Based Approach in Basel II and III documents on banking supervision and regulations. We discuss Merton’s structural approach of which one key drawback is the difficulty in tracking and calibrating asset value processes and the limitations of variant models which tend to be analytically too complex and compu¬tationally intensive. We address these issues by simulating all the possible asset value processes of a firm whose asset paths we assume to be Gaussian. By generating random values that simulate all the possible asset value processes, we are able to capture all the possible default horizons within a certain macroeconomic framework. Drawing standardised normally distributed assets values of obligors we obtain a range of values of Joint Default Probabilities at a specified asset correlation from which the corresponding range of default correlations are obtained. The results is a simplified approach to the determination of default correlation, easily implementable in Excel and less analytically complicated than existing procedures.
Abstract: We outline the ingredients necessary to compute the Joint Default Probability from which we obtain Default Correlation, an important risk quantity in the determination of Internal Rating Based Approach in Basel II and III documents on banking supervision and regulations. We discuss Merton’s structural approach of which one key drawback is the diffi...
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The Common Principal Component (CPC) Approach to Functional time Series (FTS) Models
Issue:
Volume 3, Issue 1, February 2015
Pages:
22-26
Received:
11 January 2015
Accepted:
1 February 2015
Published:
9 February 2015
Abstract: The functional time series (FTS) models are used for analyzing, modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates. However, the application of these models in presence of two or more groups within similar populations needs some modification. In these cases, it is desirable for the disaggregated forecasts to be coherent with the overall forecast. The 'coherent' forecasts are the non-divergent forecasts of sub-groups within a population. Reference [1] first proposed a coherent functional model based on product and ratios of mortality rates. In this paper, we relate some of the functional time series models to the common principal components (CPC) and partial common principal components (PCPC) models introduced by [2] and provide the methods to estimate these models. We call them common functional principal component (CFPC) models and use them for coherent mortality forecasting. Here, we propose a sequential procedure based on Johansen methodology to estimate the model parameters. We use vector approach and make use of error correction models to forecast the specific time series coefficient for each sub-group.
Abstract: The functional time series (FTS) models are used for analyzing, modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates. However, the application of these models in presence of two or more groups within similar populations needs some modification. In these cases, it is desirable for the disaggregated forecasts to be coherent with the overall forecast...
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