On Derivation of the Probability of Occurrence of an Epidemic with Application to HIV/AIDS Spread Given Tuberculosis Co-infections in the Presence of Treatment
Richard Onyino Simwa,
Nelson Lwoyelo Muhati,
Lucy Chikamai
Issue:
Volume 5, Issue 5, October 2017
Pages:
169-173
Received:
11 July 2017
Accepted:
21 July 2017
Published:
22 August 2017
Abstract: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Mycobacterium Tuberculosis (TB) infections are two major world’s public health problems especially in developing countries. Worldwide, 13% of TB cases are estimated to be co-infected with HIV and about a third of 33 million people living with HIV are infected with the bacterium that causes TB. Deterministic models are derived and applied to estimate the basic reproduction number of HIV and TB co-infection as a single output value by treating each of the parameter input as a constant value. In this paper the basic reproduction number is modeled as a random variable, then the probability that there will bean epidemic, is derived and computed. In particular it is shown that for the sub-Saharan region, the probability of the epidemic occurring is 7.9%, as expected since an epidemic is generally a rare event. This research, thus develops the methodology for the computation of the probability of occurrence of an epidemic, which is useful for the public health policy formulation.
Abstract: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Mycobacterium Tuberculosis (TB) infections are two major world’s public health problems especially in developing countries. Worldwide, 13% of TB cases are estimated to be co-infected with HIV and about a third of 33 million people living with HIV are infected with the bacterium that causes TB. Deterministic mo...
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Predictive Model with Square-Root Variance Stabilizing Transformation for Nigeria Crude Oil Export to America
Obinna Adubisi,
Titus Terkaa Mom,
Chidi Emmanuel Adubisi,
Phillip Luka
Issue:
Volume 5, Issue 5, October 2017
Pages:
174-180
Received:
20 January 2017
Accepted:
19 September 2017
Published:
5 November 2017
Abstract: In the last few decades, crude oil has claimed the topmost position in Nigerian export list, constituting a very fundamental change in the structure of Nigerian international trade. In this study, secondary data on monthly crude oil export to the United States was obtained from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) database. Using the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) methodology, the results showed that Seasonal ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)12 model had the least information criteria after the data was Square-Root transformed and non-seasonally first differenced in order to achieve series stationarity. The diagnostic tests on the selected model residuals revealed the residuals are normally distributed uncorrelated random shocks.
Abstract: In the last few decades, crude oil has claimed the topmost position in Nigerian export list, constituting a very fundamental change in the structure of Nigerian international trade. In this study, secondary data on monthly crude oil export to the United States was obtained from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) database. Using the Box-Jen...
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Numerical Strategies for the System of First Order IVPs Using Block Hybrid Extended Trapezoidal Multistep Method of Second Kind for Stiff ODEs
Issue:
Volume 5, Issue 5, October 2017
Pages:
181-187
Received:
18 September 2017
Accepted:
8 October 2017
Published:
8 November 2017
Abstract: A Modified Three Step Block Hybrid Extended Trapezoidal Multistep Method of Second Kind (BHETR2s) with two off-grid points, one at interpolation and another at collocation point yielding uniform order six (6, 6, 6, 6, 6)T for the Numerical Integration of initial value problems of stiff Ordinary Differential Equations was developed. The main method and additional equations were obtained from the same continuous formulation through interpolation and collocation procedures. The stability properties of the method was discussed and from the stability region obtained, the method is suitable for the solution Stiff Ordinary Differential Equations. Three numerical examples were considered to illustrate the efficiency and accuracy.
Abstract: A Modified Three Step Block Hybrid Extended Trapezoidal Multistep Method of Second Kind (BHETR2s) with two off-grid points, one at interpolation and another at collocation point yielding uniform order six (6, 6, 6, 6, 6)T for the Numerical Integration of initial value problems of stiff Ordinary Differential Equations was developed. The main method ...
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